SÃO PAULO — Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a narrow four-percentage-point lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions for the upcoming presidential election, according to the latest Datafolha survey released on Friday.

The survey shows President Lula securing 40% of first-round voter intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro follows closely at 36%.

Technical tie in potential runoff

In a prospective second-round runoff, the race remains deadlocked within the margin of error. Lula garners 47% of support compared to 45% for Senator Bolsonaro. With the poll’s margin of error set at plus or minus two percentage points, the outcome represents a statistical tie heading into the final stretch.

The latest figures indicate that Flávio Bolsonaro’s earlier momentum has stalled slightly. While previous polling rounds saw Lula’s initial 10-point lead narrow to just 3 percentage points, the first-round gap has now re-widened slightly to 4 points.

Welfare expansion and court crisis context

Political analysts note the polling was conducted against a shifting political backdrop, marked by an easing of tensions surrounding recent Supreme Federal Court controversies.

Additionally, the poll reflects voter sentiment following the Lula administration’s announcement of a 15% increase in monthly payout amounts for the flagship Bolsa Família social welfare program, aimed at bolstering support among low-income households.

Source: Report compiled based on poll findings released by Datafolha and originally reported by Igor Gielow for Folha de S.Paulo.

— The Malaysia Times